Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Abenomics vs economic orthodoxy

The main feature of the first half of 2013 is to see an increasing divergence of the prospects between Europe and other developed economies such as Japan and US (with the UK  caught in between - the UK is still limping along, not quite able to enable a strong recovery, but avoiding the worst of the EU recession.

Some popular blog posts of past week:

Abenomics - Is the Japanese experiment of expansionary monetary and fiscal policy a template for other developed economies? The initial Japanese growth of 2013 shows great promise. But, Japan has seen many false dawns in the past. A look at how Abenomics works, and the criticisms of the approach.

Plan B for the UK economy  - The IMF suggest a modest plan B for the UK economy.

UK Debt - It continues to rise...

Eurozone inflation

Would it help to have a higher inflation rate? A big debate at the moment is the merits of targeting higher inflation. To many economists, the idea of targeting higher inflation is reckless, and risks undermining the past decade of hard work. To other economists, higher inflation would play a role in escape the stagnant growth and debt deflation which is paralysing Europe at the moment.


Money supply in credit crunch and recession - A readers question about the role of the money supply in the recession. The money supply rose in 2008 and 2009 due to quantitative easing, but there was a sharp fall in the velocity of circulation meaning the money supply figures were misleading. In 2010-12, we saw a drop in the money supply - an indicator of the severity of the recession.

Variable or fixed rate mortgage? - A personal look at the best mortgage given current interest rate predictions.

How successful have Central Banks been in managing economy? - In 2007, many Central banks were patting themselves on the back for keeping inflation low and growth positive. Since the credit crunch, we are now evaluating the role of Central Banks in a very different light.

UK economy in the 1930s - Interestingly it wasn't all doom and gloom.


Towards the end of the decade there was a strong recovery, at least in the south and around London. Helped by devaluation and targeting higher inflation.Those were the days when you could buy a house in London for less than £400. But, although unemployment rates nationally were not as high as you might imagine, to be unemployed in the 1930s was to experience real poverty.

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