Thursday, November 6, 2008

Outlook for Japanese Yen

To understand the outlook for the Yen and its impact on the global economy, it is important to understand some background to the Yen and Japanese economy.
  1. For several years Japan has had 0% interest rates. Recently they were increased to 0.5% but, they are much lower than other economies. For example, ECB have had interest rates of 3.5-5%
  2. Japan has very high levels of savings - a pool of $15,000bn. This pool of savings is worth more than the total GDP of the US economy. Japan's excessive saving contrasts with the excessive spending and borrowing of the US.
  3. Because interest rates in Japan are very low. Japanese investors have been investing oversees. Why save in a Japanese bank and get 0% interest when you could save in Australia and get 6% or Europe and get 4%? Japan has accumulate $6 trillion of foreign assets. As they buy foreign assets it increases the value of foreign currencies such as dollar
  4. Also many Foreign investors, especially American have borrowed in Yen to invest in global stock markets. This is known as the Yen Carry Trade.
  5. The Yen Carry trade is profitable if currencies are stable and / or the dollar is rising against the Yen. If you borrow in Yen and then the dollar falls, you could lose despite the interest rate difference.

Global Recession.

Recently the global economy has been entering a recession. This means interest rates are falling and are predicted to fall in Europe, America and other countries affected by slowdown. This means that the difference in interest rates between Japan and the rest of the world is narrowing. There is no longer the same incentive to borrow Yen and invest oversees.

Because US and European interest rates are low, Japanese Investors have started to sell their dollar and Euro investments and return their money to Japan. This means the Yen has been appreciating.

Graph showing Appreciating Yen and Falling Dow Jones Index

Over the past 2 months The yen is
  • 36% higher against the Brazilian Real,
  • 29% against the Australian Dollar,
  • 33% vs. the New Zealand Kiwi,
  • 16% higher vs. the British Pound,
  • 18% higher against the Euro over the past nine weeks.
  • The only currency to rise against the Dollar

Because the Yen is rising, the Yen Carry trade becomes unprofitable, investors could lose substantial money if the Yen rises against the dollar and Euro. Therefore, with the Yen rising, people are selling their foreign investments and ending their carry trade. This increases demand for Yen even more, causing a further rise in the Yen

The Effects of Unwinding Yen Carry Trade

1. The Japanese have an incentive to sell their foreign investments. This means selling shares. Therefore, stock markets around the world could fall as the Japanese unwind their $6,000bn foreign holdings. (Japan is by far the world's largest creditor nation.

2. As the Yen Rises, people will rush for the exits selling their foreign currency to repay their Yen loans. The rise in the Yen causes a speculative bubble causing a large rise in the Yen and fall in other countries.

3. Harms Japanese exports. A higher value of the Yen makes Japanese exports more expensive reducing demand and causing lower economic growth and possibly deflation.

4. To deal with the rising Yen and slowing economy, Japan reluctantly cut its base rate from 0.5% to 0.3%. However, there is only very limited scope for future interest rate cuts.

Forecasts for Yen

With the global economy slowing down, the Yen is likely to get stronger as investors rush to the 'safe exchange rate' of the Yen.
Currently 1 US dollar = 100 Yen. But, this could fall in 2009.

1 comment:

rwgd said...

this is a precise statement. Thank you. Do you have an update?
What is the source of your data?

Raimund Dietz