Wednesday, December 19, 2007

US Economic Outlook

Back in March, I wrote this essay - Is the US heading towards recession?

Today, I updated some of these arguments to take into account recent events of the past 6 months. In particular the chances of recession have increased due to the continued weakness in the US housing Market and also the global credit crunch, which makes borrowing more expensive.

Nevertheless, despite factors such as this and investment banks like Morgan Stanley predicting recession, growth in the US has remained unexpectedly high. (Helped to some extent by the weak dollar making exports more competitive). However, I doubt this high growth will last and there are good reasons to expect a fall in growth rates in the coming year.

Will US enter into Recession?

Outlook for US Dollar 2008

In this essay I looked at the factors affecting the US dollar, unfortunately, many of the fundamental weaknesses in the dollar remain. If the dollar does continue to fall, it will make it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates and avoid a recession

Forecasts US dollar 2008

1 comment:

sergio moraes said...

hello ,I first saw your blog last week and i found it very interesting .I don´t know if you read the comments but if you do so.could you possibly give me some advice about a good read ?for someone like me who is interested in economics but not familiar with all the jargon and theories yet.
well ,thats my email
thanks in advance and sorry to disturb you during the holidays with my brazilian english